T O P

[NBC Sports] Tom Brady vs. Mac Jones would be the largest age difference between starting QBs ever - ProFootballTalk

[NBC Sports] Tom Brady vs. Mac Jones would be the largest age difference between starting QBs ever - ProFootballTalk

Qwaze

Until next year


78634

More like next month with Justin Fields waiting in the wings.


Always_0421

Doesn't TB12 set this record every fall now? Lol


78634

Between Mac, Hurts, and Fields, there are at least three chances to set this "record" next season.


Snake_Main27

Isn't Lance younger than Jones


Dwayne_Xerox_Johnson

They’d have to meet in the playoffs


Snake_Main27

They could, Jimmy G always gets hurt and the 49ers are a really good team.


5am281

Zach Wilson too


TheCovfefeMug

It’s like the “Tom Brady has thrown __ TDs, breaking the previous record held by Tom Brady” (or similar) posts that used to be around here haha


surgeyou123

Almost double his age. Fucking crazy lol


Casimir_III

Brady is exactly 22 years older than Zach Wilson.


captaincumsock69

The odds of people having the same birthday is something that always fascinates me


bgdubbs19

1/365 Are you fascinated u/captaincumsock69 ?


captaincumsock69

More so like the birthday problem where if you have a group of 23 people there’s a >50/50 chance someone shares a birthday but if you got 75 people there’s basically a 99.9% chance someone shares a birthday.


bgdubbs19

Haha wow now I'm fascinated, happy cake day!


Theo93

How does that work?


SmellGoodDontThey

With 23 people in the room, there are 23\*(23-1)/2 = 253 possible pairs of people, and each pair defines an opportunity for a birthday match. So that's 253 opportunities for something that has a 1/365 chance of happening, meaning you'd expect the odds to be close-ish to 253/365. It's not exactly that, primarily because the probabilities are not entirely disjoint; a more correct calculation would be 1-(1-1/365)^253 ≈0.501.


Xilcho

Birthdays are also not evenly distributed, so 1/365 may be underestimating.


[deleted]

Thank you for explaining that in a manner my brain is capable of processing.


peeweeinbama

And that's why BIG Poppa Pimp is gonna beat Joe's ass at Sackerfice!!


SmellGoodDontThey

Just to clarify, that calculation isn't entirely correct either because the events are not truly independent. For example, the formula entirely misses the fact that once you have 366 people at least two of them must share a birthday (ignoring leap years). But it's a commonly used approximation used in combinatorics. An actually correct calculation (making the uniformity assumption that u/Xilcho pointed out has its own issues) would be 1 - 365!/(365-23)! / 365^23 ≈ 0.507.


59jg4qe68w5y3t9q5

It's because the qualifier is any two people in the entire group sharing a birthday not that they have to hit a specific birthday date.


Tichrom

It also uses some funky math, it's *technically* correct but if you think about it it doesn't really work. Definitely worth looking up though


ispendmoremoney

??? It totally does work. Its actually pretty basic probability. No tricks, just the qualifier that it's any two people sharing the same birthday, not a specific two people or a specific date


[deleted]

Um, it absolutely works mathematically. Someone a few comments up laid it all out pretty concisely. What exactly are you referring to that "doesn't really work"?


blackcatpandora

The best kind of correct


badenglishihave

Mathematical models and extrapolation are astonishingly accurate. Take, for example, the fact that a poll of a handful of people can accurately portray the opinions of an entire populace within a few percentage points of accuracy. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/howcan-a-poll-of-only-100/


ConciselyVerbose

No it doesn’t. Once you get past marbles in a jar and playing cards and other counting problems into real world problems with a lot of unknowns the analysis becomes more complicated, but this is comfortably in the counting problem realm. If you want to do real world birthday distribution it still stays fundamentally the same. Just slightly more annoying.


peppersge

A bit biased though since a difference in a few months affects your ability to succeed in athletics from the very start.


USADave85

There are 365 days in a year. There are 330 million people in the US. You share a BDay with nearly 1,000,000 people in the US alone.


Acidiousx

Last year I was finally old enough that some of my new hires were literally half my age.... it made me feel old as shit. I wonder how Tom feels about playing against people half his age.


redrumWinsNational

fresh blood for Tom the vampire


bakerb410

Tom Brady vs Jack Brady is gonna happen, its gonna be some next level Star wars shit


rockstarnights

Gonna be one hell of a super bowl after that week 4 Patriots vs Bucs game with Cam winning the game for us.


BernadilloJune

Yep. It's gonna be crazy with 7 rushing touchdowns for Cam, only 4 interceptions, 3 receptions, and 13 passing yards.


yakinsuckmydeek

Hey… a win is a win and you just gotta take what Cam gives you. Sometimes it’s a rushing TD… sometimes it’s an easy ball in the dirt..


waheifilmguy

Ok, that made me laugh. I’d like to see that.


awful_source

Ha


SignificantDrawing39

Sounds so patriots fitting


Jusfiq

Except that Belichick will start Newton for that game…


happy2harris

Tom Brady against my daughter would be an even larger age difference. (Since the subject was “largest difference in age between a starting QB and someone who is not a starting QB”.)


ChristoWhat

Brady vs newton is the largest skill difference


KidBuu55

I'm sure Cam has beaten the Patriots at least twice.


[deleted]

[удалено]


ThermoNuclearPizza

As far as who RBK wants, probably Mac honestly. Even though he probably won’t start week one, it’s absolutely not out of the question. He could annihilate the completion in training camp. It’s unlikely but could happen. Slightly more likely, he could also be second in line and start in the event that Cam is injured or he loses the job by week 4 if it’s obvious Cam is not giving them the best chance to win football games. The honest answer is nobody knows what Bill is thinking or what Bill will do. It does appear Josh is heavily invested in Mac but that is most likely Bill’s order. Every thing that happens at 1 Patriots Place is a smokescreen as far as I’m concerned until we see Mac in gear competing against real NFL teams.


Mannup5

Right Brady as a rookie was eventually going to start but Drew Bledsoe injury sped that up


captaincumsock69

Bill wanted Brady to start tho but Bledsoe had just been signed to a deal and since bill was a new coach with a mediocre track record he wasn’t really in line to do what he wanted


theamazingjimz

Not a rookie a second year player but the point stands.


Mannup5

I forgot , it has been over 20 years 😏


BostonBasketballBoys

It's to rouse up some rabble.


HypnoToadBQ

Kraft wants a happy ending.


YouDumbZombie

In just glad I have this day and the next day off work lol. Requested those as soon as the schedule dropped!


tylerss20

By week 17 I'll bet Jones is starting. Unless Jones just sets the world on fire this training camp, Belichick isn't going to start him until after week four at least because why put him under a microscope like that?


RedditSignedMeOutYo

No shit.


ImTomBrady

Mac Jones with the game winning touchdown to Hunter Henry! I can see it now!


_apexofthevortex

Brady is going to assfuck us so hard it will become legend. 50+ point win for the Bucs and I will love every second. Brady should have retired a Patriot. Bill still wont care that he had no plan post Brady and will spend more time ballwashing Cam postgame after he throws for 74 yards and 3 picks than he ever did for Brady in 20 years.


[deleted]

Took a glance at your comment history and dang, you are literally *the worst* type of sports fan. The kind that gives all Boston sports fans a bad name. I'm cool with you just going full Buccs, please.


wishusluck

I honestly believe Brady would have had a career ending injury if he played for the Pats last year.


MetalHead_Literally

why? the o-line was fine.


doggydoggworld

Why? He's the best at avoiding those types of hits